The Blue Wave: Will the Democratic Primary Victories Impact Education Policy in NYS?

Cuomo and Nixon slugged it out all summer, the incumbent governor with an enormous war chest filled the airways with TV slots, Nixon, with very limited dollars kept up a steady barrage, and, education policy was on a back burner. Nixon trumpeted more dollars for education, clearing up the teacher evaluation morass and clearly is not a friend of charter schools, Cuomo, silent.

Cuomo, following the polling predictions, won easily with 64% of the vote; however, the story is further down the ballot.

The progressives, the anti-party establishment, the Democratic Socialists, whatever you want to call them, rejected the incumbent Independent Democratic Caucus (IDC), winning in six races, including rejecting the IDC leader Jeff Klein who spent over 2 million dollars, an incredible sum in a state senate primary race.

Juumane Williams, a Brooklyn City Council member with a checkered past and a conservative on social policies came close in the Lieutenant-Governor race and Tish James, the Public Advocate in New York City won the four-way Attorney General race with 40% of the vote; Zephyr Teachout, who ran against Cuomo in the primary four years ago had 25% of the vote.

What this means is that Joe Crowley’s shocking loss in the June congressional primary was not a fluke. Sages clucked away blaming Crowley: he lived DC, only occasionally toured the district,  didn’t take his opponent seriously, and the race was an anomaly. The victories across the board of young, vibrant, virtually unknown candidates may be a sea change in New York State politics.

The turnout was huge.

Will the wave of young, progressive candidates and voters continue two months from now in the general election?

The national Republican Party will not pump dollars into a losing campaign and it is likely that Cuomo will roll to victory; however, will Cuomo have coattails and will other progressives defeat incumbent Republicans in state senatorial races?

The state senate majority teeters, while the Democrats currently hold a 33-32 edge one member, Simcha Felder, votes with the Republicans, giving the Republicans the edge. If the blue wave continues to roll the Democrats will seize the state senate.

Past democratic majorities in the senate led to internal mud wrestling and the last two Democratic leaders ended up in jail. Can the current dem leader, Andrea Stewart-Cousins, actually lead her contentious troops?  Jeff Klein will be gone, the remaining IDC leader, Diane Savino, is isolated, a new cluster of very young and very progressive dems confronting old guard dems; of course, first the dems have to prevail in November.

At the NYS AFL-CIO Endorsement Conference the unions were all over the place, some unions supporting the former IDC incumbents, others in the insurgents, a few unions supporting Republicans. The Conference endorsed Cuomo-Hochel-deNapoli-James and failed to make any endorsements in the hotly contested races, a 2/3 vote is required for endorsement.

NYSUT, the state teacher union, made no endorsement for governor.

If the dems prevail and take control of the senate charter schools will be a loser – perhaps a big loser.

The governor, at times, has been both a friend of charter schools, at other times ignored charter schools. If the blue wave rolls I believe Cuomo will join the wave. Not only will the charter school cap not be increased it is altogether likely that legislation will require further scrutiny of charter schools: much greater transparency of school finances, tightening up the regulations, namely, charter schools students, including student with disabilities and English language learners at the same level as surrounding public schools. Charter schools commonly force out low performing students before state tests, one idea is to “credit” the test score results to the charter school.

The revised teacher evaluation law that was bottled up in the senate by the Republican leader will pass.

Perhaps the legislature will increase the power of State Education to remove school boards in conflicted districts, i. e., Hempstead and East Ramapo. BTW, a very long time Assembly member in Hempstead was defeated in the primary.

The blue wave in both houses may attempt to grapple with creating alternative assessment pilots, regional Career and Technical Education (CTE) sites, additional Community Schools, expanding Universal Pre-K and 3-for-All programs across the state.

The new ESSA law does call for greater transparency in all schools in regard to the use of dollars and Cuomo has been a fan of fiscal transparency.

Will the blue wave reach into currently Republican controlled districts?  Replacing the six IDC Democrats with six progressive Democrats will be a futile gesture without also taking control of the senate.

Will the losers, Cynthia Nixon, Zephyr Teachout, campaign across the state for Democratic candidates?  Teachout is weeks away from giving birth so we’ll give her a pass.  I would love to see TV ads with Nixon and Teachout pumping up their troops, pumping up that blue wave across the state.

In 2008 and 2012 record numbers of voters raced to the polls to cast a vote for Obama, two years later, in 2010 and 2014 they stayed home and the Congress went Republican. The job is never done, the primaries were a first step; the “real” election is in November.

Cuomo, Nixon, James, Bharara, Teachout: The Merry-Go-Round of Electoral Politics in New York State

A friend has a weekend house upstate, on Fridays he and his wife race upstate to spend Saturday and Sunday canvassing for a Democratic congressional primary candidate: Gareth Rhodes, a 29 year old graduate of CCNY.  The district is made up of small towns with many rural voters; there are seven candidates vying for the democratic line on the ballot. My friend hesitantly knocked on a door, an American flag flying in the front yard alongside a pickup truck with a gun rack in the cab. The owner smiled, “You thought I was a Trump voter – I was – what a mistake, he’s an embarrassment, I switched my registration.”

Has Trump awakened America?  Has Trump invigorated millennial voters? Will the November 2018 elections end up as a rejection of Trump and his allies?

The June 26^th primary will select candidates in districts currently held by Republican Congressman: Will voters select current electeds trying to move up the ladder? Choose young new candidates? Choose more women?

If you live in the primary districts your mailbox is probably overflowing with flyers.

The September 13^th primary is electric!!

Four years ago Zephyr Teachout, a law professor at Fordham University challenged Andrew Cuomo in the primary. A turbulent Working Families Party convention barely endorsed Cuomo, and, in September, the underfunded and virtually unknown Teachout lost; however, 35% of primary voters supported the insurgent.

Four years later a well-recognized actor and parent activist jumped into the gubernatorial race. Cynthia Nixon, a political neophyte, grabbed the attention of voters across the state; it was clear that the Cuomo camp was not prepared. Nixon seized the progressive side of the Democratic Party. While the Working Families Party endorsed Nixon the endorsement is only significant if Nixon wins the Democratic primary. If Cuomo wins and Nixon remains on the WFP ballot November will be a three-way race: Cuomo, Nixon and the Republican candidate, opening the possibility of a Republican ending up on top.

Is there is a real “Cynthia Effect“? Has the #metoo movement mobilized voters?

Currently Cuomo has a 50-28 percent lead in polling data, a month earlier Cuomo was polling at 68%.

Cynthia has chased Cuomo to the progressive side of the Democratic Party.

It appeared that Eric Schneiderman, the Attorney General would coast to victory, probably unopposed in the primary. In a matter of hours, a New Yorker article  exposed the defender of women’s rights as an abuser of women; and his immediate resignation.

Under New York State law a vacancy in the statewide office is filled by a joint meeting of the state legislatures – in reality, the Democratic leadership in the Assembly.

Letitia James, the New York City Public Advocate, was looked upon as a leading candidate for the mayoralty in 2021, quickly jumped into the AG race, rounding up supporters in the Assembly; giving her a foot up in the September primary.

A “deal” was in the making, James to AG and Bronx Borough President Rubin Diaz to Public Advocate and another Bronx pol to Diaz’s job.

The “deal” had a toxic aroma, Carl Heastie, the Speaker of the Assembly backed away and the interim acting AG, who will not be a candidate in September, was elected to fill out the Schneiderman term.

James immediately started lining up endorsements for the September primary, Zephyr Teachout may also be an AG candidate in the September as well as Leecia Eve, an Afro-American woman with close ties to the Clinton’s with extensive experience in policy-making within the Democratic Party.

Whisperings, is Preet Bharara, the former US Attorney for the Southern District (Manhattan), going to run as an independent candidate in November? If so, the Democratic winner in September would run in a three-way race in November.

November is not the end, if James wins the city charter requires a quick, election open to any candidate who can collect the requisite signatures, the party cannot designate candidates.

According to the city charter, three days after a public advocate vacancy, “The mayor is required to issue a proclamation calling a special election within 45 days,” the election would be nonpartisan, open to any candidate who can create a new party line and gather enough signatures to appear on the ballot.

Just like for vacancies in City Council seats, the victor of the special election will not serve the remainder of the public advocate’s term. Another primary contest and general election would take place in the fall of 2019 for a candidate to hold the seat through 2021.

Check out a summary of the potential and real candidates across the board here.

The merry-go-round continues, and unfortunately voter participation in New York State is among the lowest in the nation. 33 states have early voting; voters can cast ballots days or weeks before the formal election day, in some states in person in others by mail. Other states have instant registration, the current New York State election laws are “protected” by Republicans who apparently fear increasing voter turnout.

In 2008 and 2012 the “Obama Effect,” younger and first time voters flocked to the polls; however, in 2010, 2014 and 2016 stayed home. Is there a “Cynthia Effect,”? a “#metoo” effect? Will the millenials of the past, new voters and women see the polling place as a counter to the current Washington administration?

The Center for Education Equity in collaboration with Columbia University are sponsoring a conference,

 Reinvigorating Civics Education in New York will explore the state’s current civics-education landscape and foster dialogue on strategies for fortifying civics education in our schools, boosting civic-learning opportunities beyond the classroom, and fully realizing New York students’ right to civic preparation.

 Can we engage new potential voters?

The Parkland and other school shootings has clearly mobilized students: will the mobilization spread across the nation?

My friend knocking on doors upstate is optimistic; he sees a renewed activism in a rural district that usually elected Republicans.

I hope he’s right.